Prevalence of mortality among covid-19 patients in Kurdistan Region and various parts of the world and the role of ecological and environmental factors in shaping SARS-CoV-2 virulence

Authors

Muayad A. Mahmud, Department of Medical Laboratory,ShaqlawaTechnical College, Erbil Polytechnic UniversityFollow

Corresponding Author

Muayad A.Mahmud

Authors ORCID

0000-0002-9334-5221

Document Type

Research Article

Abstract

Evolutionary theories predict that virulence (host death due to a pathogen) positively associates with the pathogen transmission rates to new susceptible hosts. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS- CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic, like other RNA viruses, has quite variable genetic content due to its unique nucleus enzymes thus mutations can continuously occur during viral replications. Phenotype variations among new viral progeny can include individuals with different replication rates, infectivity, stability in the abiotic environment, and transmission rate. Here, the rate of transmission to new susceptible hosts may be affected by the pathogen’s vitality in the physical environments, and host-related factors such as control measures and vaccination. In this study, we analyzed the mortality rates of covid-19 positive patients among various parts of the world and explain the role of several factors in determining SARS-CoV-2 virulence. We found a weak negative correlation (R2 = 0.3) between the mortality rate of covid-19 patients and each of death rates due to cancer diseases (F = 9.135, P = 0.006) and the number of medical doctors per 10,000 populations (F = 8.104, P = 0.009). Other factors such as the prevalence of current daily tobacco smoking in males/females, life expectancy in males/females, general death rates, cardiovascular diseases, prevalence of COPD, prevalence of asthma and average yearly temperature did not associate with death rates among covid-19 patients. Inclusion, adequacy of healthcare services and proper infection prevention measures are the key factors to reduce the covid-19 mortality rate. More studies are required to better understand the management of SARS-CoV-2 virulence management.

Keywords

covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, virulence, ecology, mortality

How to Cite This Article

Mahmud, Muayad A. (2022) "Prevalence of mortality among covid-19 patients in Kurdistan Region and various parts of the world and the role of ecological and environmental factors in shaping SARS-CoV-2 virulence," Polytechnic Journal: Vol. 12: Iss. 1, Article 17.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25156/ptj.v12n1y2022.pp141-148

References

Aboubakr, H. A., Sharafeldin, T. A. & Goyal, S. M. 2021. Stability of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses in the environment and on common touch surfaces and the influence of climatic conditions: A review. Transbound Emerg Dis, 68(2), pp 296-312.

Adeloye, D., Song, P., Zhu, Y., Campbell, H., Sheikh, A. & Rudan, I. 2022. Global, regional, and national prevalence of, and risk factors for, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in 2019: a systematic review and modelling analysis. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 10(5), pp 447- 458.

Agwa, S. H. A., Kamel, M. M., Elghazaly, H., Abd Elsamee, A. M., Hafez, H., Girgis, S. A., Ezz Elarab, H., Ebeid, F. S. E., Sayed, S. M., Sherif, L. & Matboli, M. 2021. Association between Interferon-Lambda-3 rs12979860, TLL1 rs17047200 and DDR1 rs4618569 Variant Polymorphisms with the Course and Outcome of SARSCoV-2 Patients. Genes (Basel), 12(6), pp 830.

Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1979. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Nature, 280(361-367.

Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1982. Coevolution of hosts and parasites. Parasitology, 85( 411-426.

Best, A. 2010. The evolution and coevolution of host defence. PhD thesis, University of Sheffield, Sheffield.

Boots, M. & Mealor, M. 2007. Local Interactions Select for Lower Pathogen Infectivity. Science, 315(5816), pp 1284–1286.

Braybrook, E., Pandey, S., Vryonis, E., Anderson, N. R., Young, L. & Grammatopoulos, D. K. 2021. Screening for the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.1.7) the impact of this variant on circulating biomarkers in hospitalised patients. medRxiv, 2021.06.18.21258699.

Bull, J. J. 1994. Perspective: virulence. Evolution, 48(5), pp 1423-1437.

Callaway, E. 2020. The coronavirus is mutating — does it matter? Nature, NEWS FEATURE.

CDC 2022. Underlying Medical Conditions Associated with Higher Risk for Severe COVID-19: Information for Healthcare Professionals, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019- ncov/hcp/clinical-care/underlyingconditions.html, [Accessed 22 May 2022].

Cressler, C. E., Mc, L. D., Rozins, C., J, V. D. H. & Day, T. 2016. The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Parasitology, 143(7), pp 915-930.

Curigliano, G. 2020. Cancer Patients and Risk of Mortality for COVID-19. Cancer Cell, 38(2), pp 161-163.

Davies, N. G., Jarvis, C. I., Group, C. C.-W., Edmunds, W. J., Jewell, N. P., Diaz-Ordaz, K. & Keogh, R. H. 2021. Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7. Nature, 593(7858), pp 270-274.

Day, T., Gandon, S., Lion, S. & Otto, S. P. 2020. On the evolutionary epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Curr Biol, 30(15), pp R849-R857.

Ebert, D. & Bull, J. J. 2003. Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible? Trends in Microbiology, 11(1), pp 15-20.

Farinholt, T., Doddapaneni, H., Qin, X., Menon, V., Meng, Q., Metcalf, G., Chao, H., Gingras, M.-C., Farinholt, P., Agrawal, C., Muzny, D. M., Piedra, P. A., Gibbs, R. A. & Petrosino, J. 2021. Transmission event of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant reveals multiple vaccine breakthrough infections. medRxiv, 2021.06.28.21258780.

Fountoulakis, K. N., Fountoulakis, N. K., Koupidis, S. A. & Prezerakos, P. E. 2020. Factors determining different death rates because of the COVID-19 outbreak among countries. J Public Health (Oxf), 42(4), pp 681-687.

Goh, G. K., Dunker, A. K., Foster, J. A. & Uversky, V. N. 2020. Rigidity of the Outer Shell Predicted by a Protein Intrinsic Disorder Model Sheds Light on the COVID-19 (Wuhan-2019-nCoV) Infectivity. Biomolecules, 10(2), pp.

Hammerschmidt, K. & Kurtz, J. 2005. Evolutionary implications of the adaptation to different immune systems in a parasite with a complex life cycle. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 272(1580), pp 2511- 2518.

Harvey, W. T., Carabelli, A. M., Jackson, B., Gupta, R. K., Thomson, E. C., Harrison, E. M., Ludden, C., Reeve, R., Rambaut, A., Consortium, C.-G. U., Peacock, S. J. & Robertson, D. L. 2021. SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape. Nat Rev Microbiol, 19(7), pp 409-424.

Henderson, E. 2021. Scientists call for strict control measures to reduce the spread of new COVID-19 variants News: Medical Science, https://www.newsmedical.net/news/20210125/Scientists-call-forstrict-control-measures-to-reduce-the-spread-ofnew-COVID-19-variants.aspx [Accessed 14 Oct 2021].

Henderson, L. A., Canna, S. W., Schulert, G. S., Volpi, S., Lee, P. Y., Kernan, K. F., Caricchio, R., Mahmud, S., Hazen, M. M., Halyabar, O., Hoyt, K. J., Han, J., Grom, A. A., Gattorno, M., Ravelli, A., De Benedetti, F., Behrens, E. M., Cron, R. Q. & Nigrovic, P. A. 2020. On the Alert for Cytokine Storm: Immunopathology in COVID-19. Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.), 72(7), pp 1059-1063.

Hou, Y. J., Halfmann, P., Ehre, C., Kuroda, M. & Dinnon, K. H. 2020. SARS-CoV-2 D614G variant exhibits efficient replication ex vivo and transmission in vivo. Science,370(6523), pp 1464-68.

King, A. 2021. The coronavirus could end up mild like a common cold. New scientist (1971), 249(3318), pp 12- 13.

Koyama, T., Platt, D. & Parida, L. 2020. Variant analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Bull World Health Organ, 98(7), pp 495-504.

KRG-MOH 2022. Latest information about corona virus. https://gov.krd/coronavirus/dashboard/ [Accessed 1 March 2022).

Lebanese-Economic-Forum 1990. Average yearly temperature (1961-1990, Celsius) - by country. https://web.archive.org/web/20150905135247/htt p://lebanese-economy-forum.com/wdi-gdfadvanced-data-display/show/EN-CLC-AVRT-C/ [Accessed 21 May 2022].

Lopez Pascua, L., Gandon, S. & Buckling, A. 2012. Abiotic heterogeneity drives parasite local adaptation in coevolving bacteria and phages. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 25(1), pp 187-195.

Mahmud, M. A., Bradley, J. E., MacColl, A. D. C. & Hopkins, W. 2017. Abiotic environmental variation drives virulence evolution in a fish host–parasite geographic mosaic. Functional Ecology, 31(11), pp 2138-2146.

Mattiuzzi, C., Lippi, G. & Henry, B. M. 2021. Healthcare indicators associated with COVID-19 death rates in the European Union. Public Health, 193(41-42).

May, R. M. & Anderson, R. M. 1979. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II. Nature, 280(5722), pp 455- 461.

Mendis, S., Puska, P. & Norrving, B. 2011. Global Atlas on cardiovascular disease prevention and control. Published by the World Health Organization in collaboration with the World Heart Federation and the World Stroke Organization.

Morris, D. H., Yinda, K. C., Gamble, A., Rossine, F. W., Huang, Q., Bushmaker, T., Fischer, R. J., Matson, M. J., van Doremalen, N., Vikesland, P. J., Marr, L. C., Munster, V. J. & Lloyd-Smith, J. O. 2020. The effect of temperature and humidity on the stability of SARS-CoV2 and other enveloped viruses. bioRxiv.

Our-World-in-Data 2019. Asthma prevalence. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/asthmaprevalence [Accessed 21 May 2022].

Ren, S. Y., Wang, W. B., Hao, Y. G., Zhang, H. R., Wang, Z. C., Chen, Y. L. & Gao, R. D. 2020. Stability and infectivity of coronaviruses in inanimate environments. World J Clin Cases, 8(8), pp 1391-1399.

Rochman, N. D., Wolf, Y. I., Faure, G., Mutz, P., Zhang, F. & Koonin, E. V. 2021. Ongoing global and regional adaptive evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(29), pp e2104241118.

SanJuan-Reyes, S., Gomez-Olivan, L. M. & Islas-Flores, H. 2021. COVID-19 in the environment. Chemosphere, 263(127973.

Schmid-Hempel, P. 2009. Immune defence, parasite evasion strategies and their relevance for 'macroscopic phenomena' such as virulence. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 364(1513), pp 85-98.

Walter, B. A. & Ewald, P. W. 2004. Pathogen survival in external environment and the evolution of virulence. Biological Reviews, 79(849-869.

Wang, R., Hozumi, Y., Zheng, Y. H., Yin, C. & Wei, G. W. 2020. Host Immune Response Driving SARS-CoV-2 Evolution. Viruses, 12(10), pp.

WHO 2020. Medical doctors (per 10 000 population). https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indic ator-details/GHO/medical-doctors-(per-10-000- population) [Accessed 26 May 2022].

WHO 2021a. WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data. https://covid19.who.int/ [Accessed 8 Sep 2021].

WHO 2021b. Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants. https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARSCoV-2-variants/ [Accessed 14 July 2021].

Wirawan, G. B. S. & Januraga, P. P. 2021. Correlation of Demographics, Healthcare Availability, and COVID-19 Outcome: Indonesian Ecological Study. Front Public Health, 9(605290.

Woolhouse, M. E. J., Webster, J. P., Domingo, E., Charlesworth, B. & Levin, B. R. 2002. Biological and biomedical implications of the co- evolution of pathogens and their hosts. Nature Genetics, 32(569-576.

WorldData.info 2022. Life expectancy for men and women. https://www.worlddata.info/life-expectancy.php [Accessed 21 May 2022].

Zhan, J., Mundt, C. C., Hoffer, M. E. & B.A.Mcdonald 2002. Local adaptation and effect of host genotype on the rate of pathogen evolution: an experimental test in a plant pathosystem. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 15(634– 647).

Publication Date

8-14-2022